The Male Exodus That Isn't: Dating Apps Are Losing Payers and Women

Executive summary

The "male exodus" story has become a staple of commentary on the dating industry. DII assembled the primary data that companies, regulators and survey researchers have actually published: quarterly filings from Match Group, Bumble and Grindr, Ofcom's audience measurement for the UK, and surveys with a stated methodology. The picture is more specific, and more uncomfortable for operators, than a simple exodus.

The payer picture: three years of decline at the largest apps

The most reliable data on dating app demand is the payer count that listed companies report each quarter. It measures people who pay for a subscription or an in-app feature, not total users, and none of the companies splits it by gender.

At Match Group, total payers peaked in the data DII reviewed at 16.5 million (16,548,000) in Q3 2022, according to the company's Q3 2022 shareholder letter, which also put Tinder payers at about 11.1 million. By Q4 2022 Tinder had about 10.8 million payers (Q4 2022 shareholder letter). In Q4 2025 the figure was 8.8 million, down 8% year on year (Q4 2025 prepared remarks), and in Q2 2026 it was 8.5 million, down 5% (Q2 2026 prepared remarks).

On DII's arithmetic, that is a fall of roughly 23% in Tinder payers between Q3 2022 and Q2 2026, and of about 20% in Match Group payers overall. The comparison is not perfectly like for like: Match has reorganised its reporting segments since 2022, and in 2026 folded Pairs and Azar into its Evergreen & Emerging (E&E) segment.

Source: Match Group Q2 2026 prepared remarks and results release (SEC Form 8-K, 4 August 2026). Brand payer figures are rounded by the company.

Tinder's revenue tells a different story from its payer count. Direct revenue was $457.5 million in Q2 2026 against $461.2 million a year earlier, a fall of less than 1%, because revenue per payer rose 4%. Over the longer run, Tinder's revenue per payer has risen from $13.82 in Q3 2022 to $17.90, roughly 30% on DII's arithmetic.

Bumble: the steepest fall, partly by design

Bumble Inc.'s payer decline has been sharper. Total paying users were 4.2 million in Q4 2024 and 3.3 million in Q4 2025, down 20.5% (Bumble Q4 and full year 2025 results). In Q2 2026 they were 3.2 million (3,157,200), down 16.4% year on year (Bumble Q2 2026 results).

Source: Bumble Inc. Q4 and full year 2025 results (11 March 2026); Bumble Inc. Q2 2026 results (5 August 2026).

Bumble App paying users fell by about 26% between Q4 2024 and Q2 2026 on DII's arithmetic. Unlike Tinder, Bumble has not offset the decline through pricing: total revenue fell 15.2% in Q2 2026 to $210.5 million, and the company guided to $205 million to $213 million for Q3.

The exceptions: Hinge and Grindr

Hinge is the counterexample inside Match Group. Its payers rose 17% to 2.0 million in Q2 2026, revenue rose 22% and global MAU rose 13%, driven by expansion markets; Match says MAU in Hinge's core markets was "relatively flat" (Q2 2026 prepared remarks). Match expects Hinge to reach $1 billion in revenue in 2027.

Grindr, whose audience is primarily gay and bisexual men, reported Q2 2026 revenue of $138 million, up 33%, with 1.4 million average paying users and ARPPU of $26.51 (Grindr Q2 2026 shareholder letter). It raised its full-year revenue guidance to about $540 million. A listed app built around a male audience is growing, which sits awkwardly with any claim that men as a group are abandoning dating apps.

Who is actually leaving: what the gender data shows

Match Group, Bumble and Grindr do not publish user or payer numbers by gender. The only regularly published, independently measured gender split DII could find comes from Ofcom, the UK communications regulator, which reports Ipsos iris audience measurement of UK adults online.

Ofcom: men up, women down

Ofcom's Online Nation 2025 report, published on 10 December 2025, found that 11% of UK online adults visited an online dating site in May 2025, broadly the same reach as in the previous three years. Within that stable total, the mix shifted. Ofcom states that visitors "remain disproportionately male, increasing from 65% (3.2m) of visitors in May 2024" to "68% (3.6m) of visitors in May 2025, an increase of 364K male visitors year-on-year", while female visitors fell slightly.

The change at Tinder was larger. Tinder's UK reach fell from 5.2% of online adults in May 2023 to 4% in May 2024 and 3.1% in May 2025, and its audience from 1.9 million to 1.5 million in the latest year. Its female audience fell from 735,000 (3.2%) to 384,000 (1.5%). Ofcom says Tinder went from the highest-reaching dating service among women in May 2024 to third, behind Hinge (2.7%) and Bumble (1.6%). On DII's arithmetic from Ofcom's rounded figures, Tinder's UK male audience was roughly 1.1 to 1.2 million in both years: almost all of the loss was women.

Source: Ofcom, Online Nation 2025 (10 December 2025), using Ipsos iris Online Audience Measurement Service, UK adults 18+; Ofcom, "Appy Valentine's Day" (14 February 2025) for May 2024 Hinge and Bumble audiences.

Hinge was the only top-ten UK dating service in May 2024 where women outnumbered men, 53% to 47% (Ofcom, 14 February 2025).

Match Group: Tinder's women are the focus

Match Group's own global disclosures point the same way. In its Q2 2026 prepared remarks, Match said Tinder MAU declined 7% year on year, and that "global MAU among women [was] down 8% Y/Y in Q2, three points better than the 11% Y/Y decline in Q1." Because women's MAU fell slightly faster than the total, the average decline among all other users must have been smaller than 7%. Match does not break those other users down further.

Match's management has framed its Tinder recovery plan around women. "Much of this progress is a result of our increased focus on improving the experience for women," it said in its Q4 2025 prepared remarks. In Q2 2026 it said algorithm updates for straight women had driven gains in Sparks (its measure of meaningful conversations), and that it was "now extending these updates to straight men and LGBTQ+ users."

Why the imbalance matters

The best survey evidence on the experience gap remains Pew Research Center's 2022 fieldwork of 6,034 US adults, published in February 2023. Among those who had used dating platforms in the past year, 64% of men said they felt insecure about a lack of messages, against 40% of women. Women were more than twice as likely as men to feel overwhelmed by the number of messages, 54% against 25%. That asymmetry is a reasonable explanation of why women leave mass-market swipe apps first. It is DII's interpretation: no source cited here has measured the causal link.

Bumble's deliberate shrinkage

Bumble is the clearest case where falling payers reflect a company choice rather than only user demand. In the Q2 2025 earnings call, chief executive Whitney Wolfe Herd described a programme to sort members into groups including "remove", which she said covered "removing duplicate accounts, members who break trust, bots, scammers" and "accounts for under 10% of the member base" (Bumble Q2 2025 earnings call transcript). She said the company had "accelerated efforts to identify and ultimately remove bad actors and low-intent members" from March 2025, accepting "a near-term headwind to payers."

On the same call, Bumble said an August 2025 product update would include "phone and ID verification, mandatory selfie checks, and richer profile-building tools", and that "approved members monetize at approximately double the rates of our improved members." The interim chief financial officer said the majority of that quarter's payer decline came from phasing out a legacy promotions strategy, and that the update was "expected to drive further near-term attrition from lower-intent members."

By March 2026, Wolfe Herd said Bumble had made "the deliberate choice to return Bumble to its women-first foundation," and chief financial officer Kevin Cook said the company had completed "the most intensive phase of our member base reset" (Q4 2025 results). Five months later, on 11 August 2026, Bumble ended the rule that only women could message first in opposite-sex matches, letting either match start the conversation and extending the reply window from 24 to 72 hours (TechCrunch, 11 August 2026). TechCrunch reported that 66% of women surveyed by Bumble said they preferred men to send the first message. Wolfe Herd said the change "isn't a departure from our founding vision, but the realization of it." DII covered the change here.

On 13 October 2026 Bumble agreed to be acquired by Ithaca Holdings for $6.05 a share in cash, about $1.3 billion, a premium of about 138% to the unaffected closing price on 9 October (Bumble 8-K, 13 October 2026). Affiliates of Blackstone and Wolfe Herd have approved the deal by written consent. The transaction has not yet closed. Ithaca's co-founders, Ravi Gupta and John Hegeman, are to become co-chief executives at closing. Bumble said it will not issue a Q3 2026 earnings release or hold a call, which removes one quarterly data point from public view. DII's coverage of the deal is here.

Gen Z: interested in relationships, sceptical of the format

Young adults remain the heaviest users of dating services. Pew found that 53% of US adults under 30 had used a dating site or app, the highest of any age group. In the UK, Ofcom reported that one in five 18 to 24-year-olds used a dating service in May 2024, the highest reach of any adult age group (Ofcom, February 2025).

What surveys suggest is not a rejection of relationships. Match Group's 2026 Singles in America study, conducted with researchers at Indiana University's Kinsey Institute among about 5,000 US single adults in March and April 2026, found that 72% of Gen Z respondents wanted to get married, the highest share of any generation (Newsweek, 29 September 2026). Match is the study's sponsor, and Newsweek's report did not give weighting or margin of error.

The scepticism is directed at the product. A Bloomberg Intelligence survey of about 1,000 dating app users, reported by Fortune in July 2025, found nearly half said AI did not improve their profiles or conversations, and that Gen Z was more uncomfortable than other groups with AI writing prompts, replying to messages or editing photos. A Wells Fargo survey of 500 dating app users, reported by Fortune in September 2024, found about 85% of those who avoided Tinder cited its association with hookups, against 28% for Hinge. Neither publication gave full fieldwork details, so these figures should be treated as indicative.

Match's own product data suggests young users respond to formats that take pressure off the swipe. During the Los Angeles pilot of Tinder Events, "71% of eligible users ages 18 to 24 engaged with the in-app Events tab", and Match said "roughly three in five people who do not use Tinder today say Events would make them more likely to do so" (Q2 2026 prepared remarks). Match also said that US campaigns for Music Mode and Astrology Mode had improved new registrations among women, and in its Q1 2026 results reported that Tinder registrations returned to year-on-year growth in March 2026, the first increase in nearly two years.

DII did not find a recent, methodologically documented survey from Ogury or Morgan Stanley on Gen Z dating behaviour that it could open and verify for this report, and has not cited one.

The economics: fewer payers, higher yield, and a gender gap no one discloses

The industry's revenue model rests on a minority of users who pay. That minority is shrinking at the largest apps, but each remaining payer is worth more.

Source: Match Group shareholder letters and prepared remarks (Q3 2022, Q4 2025, Q2 2026); Bumble Inc. results (Q4 2025, Q2 2026); Grindr Q2 2026 shareholder letter. Figures are monthly averages as each company defines them.

Match Group's overall revenue per payer has risen by about 32% since Q3 2022 on DII's arithmetic, while its payer count fell by about a fifth. A Hinge payer generates nearly twice the monthly revenue of a Tinder payer. Match Group's total revenue was down only 1% in Q2 2026, at $853.1 million, and its adjusted EBITDA rose 14% to $331.3 million (Q2 2026 results).

Third-party app-store estimates point the same way. Appfigures estimated that Tinder's gross app-store revenue hit an all-time monthly high of $134 million in May 2025, and that users spent about $340 million across Tinder, Bumble and Hinge that month, the most it had recorded (Appfigures, 31 October 2025). These are modelled estimates, before store fees, and do not match company-reported revenue.

Do men pay most?

It is widely stated that men account for most dating app revenue. No company in this report publishes payers or revenue by gender, so that claim cannot be verified from filings. The strongest public evidence is Pew's survey: 41% of US men who had used online dating had paid for it, against 29% of women, and 35% overall. Users under 30 were less likely to have paid (22%) than those 30 and older (41%). Combined with Ofcom's finding that men made up 68% of UK dating-service visitors in May 2025, it is reasonable to infer that men are the majority of payers on mass-market heterosexual apps. That is an inference, not a disclosed figure.

The inference has a consequence. If men are both the majority of payers and the group least likely to leave, operators can sustain revenue by charging them more even as total payers fall. That is broadly what Tinder's revenue per payer suggests has happened. The risk is the one Ofcom's data highlights: a market that becomes more male each year becomes less useful to the men paying for it.

Downloads and activity: the third-party data

Public third-party data on downloads and active users is patchy and mostly dated. Sensor Tower reported in December 2024 that downloads across its dating cohort fell 9% year on year globally in Q3 2024 and 14% in the US, with global MAU down 3% and US MAU down 8% (Sensor Tower, December 2024). It found that "resurrected" users, people returning to an app after leaving, averaged 8.4% of users in 2024 to date, down from 11% in 2020, and that US dating ad spend was down 16% year to date. A year earlier, it had reported cohort downloads up 1% and MAU up 7% in Q4 2023 (Sensor Tower, February 2024).

Sensor Tower's public notes do not break users down by gender. DII did not find a publicly released Sensor Tower or Appfigures gender split for 2025 or 2026.

Match Group's company-reported figures show the decline in Tinder activity slowing through 2025 and 2026: MAU down 10% in Q3 2025, 9% in Q4 2025 and 7% in Q2 2026, with daily active users down 4% in Q2 2026, which Match called the best result in ten quarters. New registrations were down 5% in Q4 2025, against 12% in Q2 2025.

Product responses: built for women, verification, and getting offline

The product changes operators have announced since 2025 fall into four groups. Most are aimed at the supply side of the market, women, rather than at retaining men.

Source: Match Group Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 prepared remarks; Bumble Q2 2025 earnings call and Q2 2026 results; TechCrunch (11 August 2026).

Two points stand out. First, verification is being used to reduce the user base deliberately, on the view that removing bad actors raises the value of the remaining audience. Bumble said this explicitly; Match described Face Check as having "minimal revenue impact." Second, in-person events are being positioned as a reason for lapsed users and non-users to return, not as a revenue line. Match said it was scaling Tinder Events "through a low-cost model built primarily around partnerships with leading event providers." DII has covered the Events roll-out here.

AI matchmaking remains more promise than measured result in public disclosures. The Bloomberg Intelligence survey cited above suggests users, and Gen Z in particular, are wary of AI that writes for them. None of the companies has published data showing that AI features have changed payer or retention trends.

What it means for operators

Plan for a gender imbalance that is worsening, not for a male exodus. The UK data shows the share of male visitors rising from 65% to 68% in a year. For a general-audience app, the binding constraint is the number of active women, and every decision on pricing, moderation and marketing should be tested against its effect on women's retention.

Treat payer counts and revenue as different signals. Tinder's payers have fallen by about a quarter since 2022 while its revenue has barely moved in the latest quarter. Pricing power over a loyal, largely male paying base can mask a shrinking market for several years. Smaller operators without Tinder's brand should not assume they can do the same.

Quality cuts cost payers first. Bumble's experience shows that removing low-intent and bad-actor accounts reduces paying users before any benefit appears, and the benefit has not yet shown up in its reported revenue. Operators considering mandatory ID or selfie verification should budget for a period of lower payer numbers and decide in advance what metric will show that it worked.

Women-first mechanics are being redesigned, not abandoned. Bumble dropped its signature rule after its own survey found most women preferred men to message first. The direction across the industry is toward reducing pressure and volume for women (longer reply windows, friend input, group dates) rather than gating who speaks first.

Relationship-focused and community apps are where payer growth is. Hinge and Grindr both grew payers in 2026. Both serve audiences with a clearer purpose than a general swipe app. Positioning around intent, or around a defined community, has a better recent record than positioning around volume.

Be careful with gender claims in marketing and investor material. Because no major operator publishes payers by gender, any figure an operator uses should be its own first-party data or clearly attributed survey data, with the methodology stated.

What to watch next

• Bumble's Q3 2026 Form 10-Q, due by 9 November 2026. Bumble will file without an earnings release or call, according to its 13 October announcement. It will show whether paying users fell again in Q3, as the company indicated in August.
• Completion of the Ithaca Holdings deal. Bumble will file a Schedule 14C information statement; the release gave no target closing date. Once private, Bumble's payer data will no longer be published.
• Match Group's Q3 2026 results. Match guided to revenue of $885 million to $895 million. The key figures are Tinder payers, MAU among women, and whether Match extends its women-focused algorithm work to straight men as it said it would. Match had not posted a results date on its investor site when DII checked in October 2026.
• Grindr's Q3 2026 results, against full-year guidance of about $540 million revenue.
• Ofcom's next Online Nation report. The 2025 edition was published on 10 December 2025. A further year of Ipsos iris data would show whether the male share of UK dating visitors kept rising after May 2025.
• Hinge's path to $1 billion revenue in 2027, and whether growth outside its core markets continues while core-market MAU is flat.

Sources

1. Match Group: Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (4 August 2026)
2. Match Group: Q2 2026 prepared remarks, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.2 (4 August 2026)
3. Match Group: Q1 2026 results release (5 May 2026)
4. Match Group: Q4 2025 prepared remarks, "One Year In" (3 February 2026)
5. Match Group: Q4 2022 shareholder letter (31 January 2023)
6. Match Group: Q3 2022 shareholder letter (1 November 2022)
7. Bumble Inc.: Announces Second Quarter 2026 Results (5 August 2026)
8. Bumble Inc.: Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results, Business Wire release as republished by 01net (11 March 2026)
9. MarketBeat: Bumble Q2 2025 earnings call transcript (6 August 2025)
10. Bumble Inc.: Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, agreement to be acquired by Ithaca Holdings (13 October 2026)
11. TechCrunch: Bumble ditches its rule that kept men from making the first move (11 August 2026)
12. Grindr Inc.: Q2 2026 shareholder letter (6 August 2026)
13. Ofcom: Online Nation 2025 report (10 December 2025)
14. Ofcom: Appy Valentine's Day, top online dating trends revealed (14 February 2025)
15. Pew Research Center: Key findings about online dating in the U.S. (2 February 2023)
16. Newsweek: Gen Z is more pro-marriage than any other generation, on Match's 2026 Singles in America study (29 September 2026)
17. Fortune: Dating apps are banking on AI to win over Gen Z, survey finds (17 July 2025)
18. Fortune: Gen Z and millennials are dumping Tinder and daters are flocking to Hinge instead (3 September 2024)
19. Sensor Tower: Users separate from dating apps (December 2024)
20. Sensor Tower: Dating apps struggle to find a match (February 2024)
21. Appfigures: Mainstream dating apps hit new all-time highs for the first time in a long time (31 October 2025)

Get the DII Briefing

The dating industry's deals, rules and results. Tuesdays and Fridays at 9:30am UK. Free.

Includes a free DII account so you can comment. One click to leave. Privacy. Or follow on WhatsApp.

DII Editorial Team

Published 18 October 2026

DatingIndustryInsights.com is an independent B2B intelligence platform covering the global online dating industry. It publishes original research, financial analysis, regulatory tracking, and investigative reporting. It operates with no advertising from the companies it covers.

What To Read Next

Regulatory Monitor

Dating Apps and the CSEA Reporting Duty: Where Compliance Stands Six Months On

28 March 2026 · 17 min read

Data & Analytics

Romance Fraud and Dating Apps: UK Losses, Scam Tactics and the Rules in 2026

31 March 2026 · 13 min read

Regulatory Monitor

Cyberflashing on Dating Apps: What the Law Now Requires and How Platforms Respond

8 April 2026 · 15 min read

Technology & AI Lab

AI Companions and Dating Apps: Big Audiences, Thin Revenue, Rising Legal Risk

18 October 2026 · 20 min read

Regulatory Monitor

Dating App Subscriptions: The New Rules on Renewal and Cancellation in 2026

18 October 2026 · 20 min read

Editorial

Why We Launched DII: The Case for Independent Dating Industry Intelligence

18 October 2026 · 10 min read