• Bumble (BMBL) closed at $5.95 on 13 October, up from $2.54 on 9 October, according to Yahoo Finance.
  • Ithaca Holdings is offering $6.05 per Class A share in cash, a deal valuing Bumble at $1.3B.
  • The offer is a 138% premium to the 9 October unaffected close, the company said.
  • The merger agreement allows either party to terminate if it has not closed by 12 July 2027.

Bumble (BMBL) shares more than doubled over two sessions around the Ithaca Holdings take-private, closing at $5.95 on 13 October against $2.54 on 9 October, according to Yahoo Finance. Ithaca's all-cash offer is $6.05 per Class A share, which the company's press release says values Bumble at $1.3B.

A GuruFocus alert dated 18 October said the stock was near its 52-week high, with a market cap of $784M. The alert says it was generated by automated technology, and DII has not verified the 52-week claim. The move itself happened on 12 and 13 October, not 18 October.

The DII Take

A stock sitting 10 cents under the offer says investors expect this deal to complete. The more telling number is the baseline: a 138% premium on a share price that reflected a shrinking business, set against a roughly $14B valuation at the February 2021 IPO, as Bloomberg reported. Shareholders are getting a generous premium on today's price, but an exit far below where Bumble started as a public company.

Two sessions, one signed deal

Yahoo Finance reports that BMBL rose 49.61% on Monday 12 October to $3.80 after reports of advanced talks. It then rose another 56.58% to close at $5.95 on 13 October, just under the $6.05 offer. The company said the premium is about 138% to the 9 October close and about 119% to the 30-day volume-weighted average price.

Shareholders will not vote. Affiliates of Blackstone and founder Whitney Wolfe Herd approved the deal by written consent, and others will receive an information statement. Law firms are already probing the fairness of the price.

The business behind the price

Bumble's second-quarter revenue fell 15.2% to $210.5M, according to its results filing. Paying users fell 16.4% to 3.2M, while adjusted EBITDA was $72.9M, a 34.6% margin. Match Group (MTCH) reported total payers down 6% to 13.3M for the same quarter, according to a transcript of its earnings call.

It then rose another 56.58% to close at $5.95 on 13 October, just under the $6.05 offer.

What to watch

Ithaca must deposit a $102M parent termination fee in escrow by 19 October, according to the 8-K. A $29M company termination fee applies in specified circumstances. Bumble will file its Q3 10-Q by 9 November and plans no earnings release or call.

  • Bumble's stock trading just under the $6.05 offer shows the market expects the Ithaca deal to close, though the merger agreement allows termination if it has not closed by 12 July 2027.
  • Shareholders get no vote, so the information statement and the fairness probes by law firms are the pressure points.
  • With no Q3 call planned, the 10-Q due by 9 November is the next look at Bumble's payer trend.

Sources: Bumble Inc. to Be Acquired by Ithaca Holdings (Bumble Inc. investor relations); Bumble Inc. Form 8-K, merger agreement summary (SEC EDGAR); Bumble Inc. second quarter 2026 results (SEC EDGAR); Match Group second quarter 2026 results (SEC EDGAR); Match Group Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool); What a $1.3 Billion Bumble Deal Says About Where AI Leaves Human Connection (Yahoo Finance); Bumble to Go Private in $1.3 Billion Deal With Ithaca Holdings (Yahoo Finance, citing Bloomberg); Bumble (BMBL) Stock Surges Over 100% After $1.3B Acquisition Announcement (GuruFocus)